Something Wicked This Way Cometh

A week embedded with a Mega Vaxxed Family

We were visited by some friends who we have not seen since before UEP was launched.

They are under 40 and have extremely healthy lifestyles exercising regularly and eating mainly whole foods. They have a boy and a girl both under 10 years of age.

Unfortunately they are fully Vaxxed.

The mother was hauling a veritable pharmacy on the trip including cough syrups, pills, and a nebulizer. Both of the children were experiencing hacking coughs throughout the trip, particularly at night. Neither appeared otherwise ‘sick’ - no fever or malaise.

Apparently the entire family has been battling an endless series of respiratory illnesses for many months. They experience sickness for a few weeks - they recover but then a couple of weeks later the illness returns. Rinse repeat rinse repeat rinse repeat.

The mother has been experiencing tinnitus as well as gastric issues severe enough to warrant a full medical check. The doctors have been unable to work out the causes of her maladies and are unable to offer any remedies.

They remain baffled even though the MSM is admitting the Death Shots cause tinnitus - Possible links between Covid shots and tinnitus emerge

Their anxiety and despair is palpable as they hook the children up to the nebulizer in shifts.

Madame Fast gives me the knowing look but I say nothing. Because nothing can be done to save them. They are doomed.

I experienced a similar situation the last time when I visited family overseas in 2023. A relative’s child was missing a significant amount of school time due to a constant barrage of respiratory illnesses. The parents had taken to arguing about the cause with one insisting ‘too much sport’ was weakening the child’s immune system.

I contacted this relative this morning and mentioned that we had friends visit and their children are forever sick. He said his child continues to experience bouts of illness and was recently admitted to the hospital with severe influenza.

Ironically, I would imagine that these sick and dying Vaxxers are continuing to inject both Covid (and flu) vaccines in the mistaken belief that these might solve their health problems.

This surely will end badly. Their immune systems are fucked so without a doubt cancer cells are battering away at the gate and it is just a matter of time before the immune system falters enough to allow them to swarm in.

A friend mentioned two of his colleagues each have a young child who was recently diagnosed with cancer. What are the odds…

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In other news….

Bye-Bye Saudi America

Technological innovation — particularly in the Permian Basin in Texas — has transformed America into the world’s top producer of both oil and natural gas. Having extracted more than 13 million barrels of crude oil per day on average in 2024, the US has left both Saudi Arabia and Russia far behind. Prevailing economic forecast suggests that US oil production will continue to rise for a few more years, then flatline for the foreseeable future. Or will it? The Permian Basin, responsible for half of US oil extraction and by far the largest source of production growth worldwide, has come closer to its geological limits than ever before. If it were to roll over it would not only mean an end to US oil production growth, but an abrupt halt to increases in natural gas extraction, too, pushing global hydrocarbon production into decline. Join me on a wild ride starting in Earth’s ancient past and ending with machine learning models to see how deep the rabbit hole goes. Buckle up, ’cause Saudi America is going bye-bye.

US Natural Gas Production is Plummeting

Natural gas production is plummeting—a condition noted by almost no analysts. Between December 2023 and May 2024, U.S. dry gas supply has contracted by a notable 5 billion cubic feet per day—a nearly 5% reduction. On a year-over-year basis, the decline stands at 2.2 bcf/d. The drawdown is the sharpest since the shale revolution began, excluding the 2020 COVID year. Both shale and conventional production have taken a hit, with shale output diminishing by 2.1 bcf/d and conventional sources plummeting by 2.8 bcf/d over the last five months.

In the history of shale production, the current year marks the first-ever non-COVID-related year-on-year decline, with the shales recording a reduction of 1.9 bcf/d as of May. The Marcellus, the once-mighty giant, has seen its production fall by 1.1 bcf/d since December, while the Haynesville has shed 500 mmcf/d. The Permian Basin still stands as the lone growth exception, eking out a modest gain of 265 mmcf/d over the same period.

Economic chemotherapy

So, let us begin with some of the basics which this site has been talking about for more than a decade now. First, let’s talk about the exponential function. This is the area of mathematics which deals with compounding growth. And most people fail to grasp it. For example, here in the UK, the government has bet the house on something called “economic growth,” which they seem not to understand. But how much growth is desirable – 2%? 3%? 5%? One reason why financial services have struggled in recent times is because they were modelled upon pre-2008 growth rates of five percent or more. But what does five percent growth mean? Most people – including, I suspect, most of our political class – seem to assume it means five percent at simple interest. That is, we take five percent of our current economy and grow it by that much into the future.

But anything that grows by a percentage over time mirrors compound interest. That is, a five percent growth rate means adding the five percent to the current economy and then each year recalculating that five percent. So that, fourteen years from now, the economy will have doubled in size.

This (sort of) looks okay if you are a saver or an investor – every £100 invested today will grow to £200 fourteen years from now. But when we step back, we notice some unpleasant side effects of the compounding. For the economy to “grow” by five percent requires either or both of two key metrics to double over our 14-year period. First, the material economy – and especially energy and raw resources – has to double in size over the period… twice the energy consumed, twice the minerals mined, twice the goods and services produced, twice the greenhouse gas emissions, twice the refuse going into landfill, etc.

The Financial Kessler Effect

Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a high-speed projectile with the potential to disable any other part of the system it impacts.

Complex systems can undergo what's known as phase shifts, where the state of the system changes abruptly. The classic example of this is liquid water turning to ice. Since the mechanisms at work--temperature, saline levels, etc.--is known and measurable, then this phase transition is predictable.

Complex systems with emergent properties are unpredictable, and so their phase transitions catch us off guard. The system looks stable, as the risk of sudden instability resolving in a phase shift is not visible.