One year in Hell...

Is paradise compared to total collapse of civilization

As you read this consider:

• the situation was limited to a single country - the rest of the world was functioning normally

• there was some food and water - some fuel - some electricity - some bullets

• the 4000 spent fuel ponds around the globe were not a threat

One year in Hell...

I am from Bosnia. You know, between 1992 and 1995, it was hell. For one year, I lived and survived in a city with 6,000 people without water, electricity, gasoline, medical help, civil defense, distribution service, any kind of traditional service or centralized rule.

Our city was blockaded by the army; and for one year, life in the city turned into total crap. We had no army, no police. We only had armed groups; those armed protected their homes and families.

When it all started, some of us were better prepared. But most of the neighbors' families had enough food only for a few days. Some had pistols; a few had AK-47s or shotguns.

After a month or two, gangs started operating, destroying everything. Hospitals, for example, turned into slaughterhouses. There was no more police. About 80 percent of the hospital staff were gone. I got lucky. My family at the time was fairly large (15 people in a large house, six pistols, three AKs), and we survived (most of us, at least).

The Americans dropped MREs every 10 days to help blockaded cities. This was never enough. Some -- very few -- had gardens. It took three months for the first rumors to spread of men dying from hunger and cold. We removed all the doors, the window frames from abandoned houses, ripped up the floors and burned the furniture for heat. Many died from diseases, especially from the water (two from my own family). We drank mostly rainwater, ate pigeons and even rats.

Money soon became worthless. We returned to an exchange. For a tin can of tushonka (think Soviet spam), you could have a woman. (It is hard to speak of it, but it is true.) Most of the women who sold themselves were desperate mothers.

Arms, ammunition, candles, lighters, antibiotics, gasoline, batteries and food. We fought for these things like animals. In these situations, it all changes. Men become monsters. It was disgusting.

Strength was in numbers. A man living alone getting killed and robbed would be just a matter of time, even if he was armed.

Today, me and my family are well-prepared, I am well-armed. I have experience.

It does not matter what will happen: an earthquake, a war, a tsunami, aliens, terrorists, economic collapse, uprising. The important part is that something will happen.

Here's my experience: You can't make it on your own. Don't stay apart from your family; prepare together, choose reliable friends.

1. How to move safely in a city

The city was divided into communities along streets. Our street (15 to 20 homes) had patrols (five armed men every week) to watch for gangs and for our enemies.

All the exchanges occurred in the street. About 5 kilometers away was an entire street for trading, all well-organized; but going there was too dangerous because of the snipers. You could also get robbed by bandits. I only went there twice, when I needed something really rare (list of medicine, mainly antibiotics, of the French original of the texts).

Nobody used automobiles in the city: The streets were blocked by wreckage and by abandoned cars. Gasoline was very expensive. If one needed to go somewhere, that was done at night. Never travel alone or in groups that were too big -- always two to three men. All armed, travel swift, in the shadows, cross streets through ruins, not along open streets.

There were many gangs 10 to 15 men strong, some as large as 50 men. But there were also many normal men, like you and me, fathers and grandfathers, who killed and robbed. There were no "good" and "bad" men. Most were in the middle and ready for the worst.

2. What about wood? Your home city is surrounded by woods; why did you burn doors and furniture?

There were not that many woods around the city. It was very beautiful -- restaurants, cinemas, schools, even an airport. Every tree in the city and in the city park was cut down for fuel in the first two months.

Without electricity for cooking and heat, we burned anything that burned. Furniture, doors, flooring: That wood burns swiftly. We had no suburbs or suburban farms. The enemy was in the suburbs. We were surrounded. Even in the city you never knew who was the enemy at any given point.

3. What knowledge was useful to you in that period?

To imagine the situation a bit better, you should know it was practically a return to the Stone Age.

For example, I had a container of cooking gas. But I did not use it for heat. That would be too expensive! I attached a nozzle to it I made myself and used to fill lighters. Lighters were precious.

If a man brought an empty lighter, I would fill it; and he would give me a tin of food or a candle. I was a paramedic. In these conditions, my knowledge was my wealth. Be curious and skilled. In these conditions, the ability to fix things is more valuable than gold.

Items and supplies will inevitably run out, but your skills will keep you fed.

I wish to say this: Learn to fix things, shoes or people.

My neighbor, for example, knew how to make kerosene for lamps. He never went hungry.

4. If you had three months to prepare now, what would you do?

Three months? Run away from the country? (joking)

Today, I know everything can collapse really fast. I have a stockpile of food, hygiene items, batteries -- enough to last me for six months. I live in a very secure flat and own a home with a shelter in a village 5 kilometers away. Another six-month supply there, too. That's a small village; most people there are well-prepared. The war had taught them.

I have four weapons and 2,000 rounds for each.

I have a garden and have learned gardening. Also, I have a good instinct. You know, when everyone around you keeps telling you it'll all be fine, but I know it will all collapse.

I have strength to do what I need to protect my family. Because when it all collapses, you must be ready to do "bad" things to keep your children alive and protect your family.

Surviving on your own is practically impossible. (That's what I think.) Even you're armed and ready, if you're alone, you'll die. I have seen that happen many times.

Families and groups, well-prepared, with skills and knowledge in various fields: That's much better.

5. What should you stockpile?

That depends. If you plan to live by theft, all you need is weapons and ammo. Lots of ammo.

If not, more food, hygiene items, batteries, accumulators, little trading items (knives, lighters, flints, soap). Also, alcohol of a type that keeps well. The cheapest whiskey is a good trading item.

Many people died from insufficient hygiene. You'll need simple items in great amounts. For example, garbage bags. Lots of them. And toilet papers. Non-reusable dishes and cups: You'll need lots of them. I know that because we didn't have any at all.

As for me, a supply of hygiene items is perhaps more important than food. You can shoot a pigeon. You can find a plant to eat. You can't find or shoot any disinfectant.

Disinfectant, detergents, bleach, soap, gloves, masks.

First aid skills, washing wounds and burns. Perhaps you will find a doctor and will not be able to pay him.

Learn to use antibiotics. It's good to have a stockpile of them.

You should choose the simplest weapons. I carry a Glock .45. I like it, but it's a rare gun here. So I have two TT pistols, too. (Everyone has them and ammo is common.)

I don't like Kalashnikov's, but again, same story. Everyone has them; so do I. You must own small, unnoticeable items.

For example, a generator is good, but 1,000 BIC lighters are better. A generator will attract attention if there's any trouble, but 1,000 lighters are compact, cheap and can always be traded.

We usually collected rainwater into four large barrels and then boiled it. There was a small river, but the water in it became very dirty very fast. It's also important to have containers for water: barrels and buckets.

6. Were gold and silver useful?

Yes. I personally traded all the gold in the house for ammunition. Sometimes, we got our hands on money: dollars and Deutschmarks. We bought some things for them, but this was rare and prices were astronomical. For example, a can of beans cost $30 to $40. The local money quickly became worthless.

Everything we needed we traded for through barter. 7. Was salt expensive? Yes, but coffee and cigarettes were even more expensive. I had lots of alcohol and traded it without problems. Alcohol consumption grew over 10 times as compared to peacetime. Perhaps today, it's more useful to keep a stock of cigarettes, lighters and batteries. They take up less space.

At this time, I was not a survivalist. We had no time to prepare -- several days before the shit hit the fan. The politicians kept repeating over the TV that everything was going according to plan, there's no reason to be concerned. When the sky fell on our heads, we took what we could.

8. Was it difficult to purchase firearms?

What did you trade for arms and ammunition? After the war, we had guns in every house. The police confiscated lots of guns at the beginning of the war. But most of them we hid. Now I have one legal gun that I have a license for. Under the law, that's called a temporary collection. If there is unrest, the government will seize all the registered guns. Never forget that.

You know, there are many people who have one legal gun, but also illegal guns if that one gets seized. If you have good trade goods, you might be able to get a gun in a tough situation. But remember, the most difficult time is the first days, and perhaps you won't have enough time to find a weapon to protect your family.

To be disarmed in a time of chaos and panic is a bad idea. In my case, there was a man who needed a car battery for his radio. He had shotguns. I traded the accumulator for both of them. Sometimes, I traded ammunition for food, and a few weeks later traded food for ammunition. Never did the trade at home, never in great amounts. Few people knew how much and what I keep at home.

The most important thing is to keep as many things as possible in terms of space and money. Eventually, you'll understand what is more valuable.

Correction: I'll always value weapons and ammunition the most. Second? Maybe gas masks and filters.

9. What about security?

Our defenses were very primitive. Again, we weren't ready, and we used what we could. The windows were shattered, and the roofs in a horrible state after the bombings. The windows were blocked -- some with sandbags, others with rocks. I blocked the fence gate with wreckage and garbage, and used a ladder to get across the wall.

When I came home, I asked someone inside to pass over the ladder. We had a fellow on our street that completely barricaded himself in his house. He broke a hole in the wall, creating a passage for himself into the ruins of the neighbor's house -- a sort of secret entrance. Maybe this would seem strange, but the most protected houses were looted and destroyed first.

In my area of the city, there were beautiful houses with walls, dogs, alarms and barred windows. People attacked them first. Some held out; others didn't. It all depended how many hands and guns they had inside. I think defense is very important, but it must be carried out unobtrusively.

If you are in a city and SHTF comes, you need a simple, non-flashy place, with lots of guns and ammo. How much ammo? As much as possible. Make your house as unattractive as you can.

Right now, I own a steel door, but that's just against the first wave of chaos. After that passes, I will leave the city to rejoin a larger group of people, my friends and family.

There were some situations during the war. There's no need for details, but we always had superior firepower and a brick wall on our side. We also constantly kept someone watching the streets.

Quality organization is paramount in case of gang attacks. Shooting was constantly heard in the city. Our perimeter was defended primitively. All the exits were barricaded and had little firing slits. Inside we had at least five family members ready for battle at any time and one man in the street, hidden in a shelter. We stayed home through the day to avoid sniper fire.

At first, the weak perish. Then, the rest fight. During the day, the streets were practically empty due to sniper fire. Defenses were oriented toward short-range combat alone.

Many died if they went out to gather information, for example. It's important to remember we had no information, no radio, no TV -- only rumors and nothing else.

There was no organized army; every man fought. We had no choice. Everybody was armed, ready to defend themselves. You should not wear quality items in the city; someone will murder you and take them. Don't even carry a "pretty" long arm, it will attract attention.

Let me tell you something: If SHTF starts tomorrow, I'll be humble. I'll look like everyone else. Desperate, fearful. Maybe I'll even shout and cry a little bit. Pretty clothing is excluded altogether. I will not go out in my new tactical outfit to shout: "I have come! You're doomed, bad guys!" No, I'll stay aside, well-armed, well-prepared, waiting and evaluating my possibilities, with my best friend or brother.

Super-defenses, super-guns are meaningless. If people think they should steal your things, that you're profitable, they will. It's only a question of time and the amount of guns and hands.

10. How was the situation with toilets? We used shovels and a patch of earth near the house. Does it seem dirty? It was. We washed with rainwater or in the river, but most of the time the latter was too dangerous. We had no toilet paper; and if we had any, I would have traded it away. It was a "dirty" business. Let me give you a piece of advice:

You need guns and ammo first -- and second, everything else. Literally everything! All depends on the space and money you have. If you forget something, there will always be someone to trade with for it. But if you forget weapons and ammo, there will be no access to trading for you.

I don't think big families are extra mouths. Big families means both more guns and strength -- and from there, everyone prepares on his own.

11. How did people treat the sick and the injured? Most injuries were from gunfire. Without a specialist and without equipment, if an injured man found a doctor somewhere, he had about a 30 percent chance of survival. It ain't the movie. People died.

Many died from infections of superficial wounds. I had antibiotics for three to four uses -- for the family, of course. People died foolishly quite often. Simple diarrhea will kill you in a few days without medicine, with limited amounts of water.

There were many skin diseases and food poisonings… nothing to it. Many used local plants and pure alcohol -- enough for the short-term, but useless in the long term.

Hygiene is very important, as well as having as much medicine as possible -- especially antibiotics.

The Compartmental Fracture of Art Berman and The Angkor Wat Fallacy

When I was a moderator at PeakOil.com, I noticed a strange quirk that while geologists have a flawless understanding of the Earth’s crust, they occasionally harbor some truly wacky ideas about human ecology.

Petroleum geologist Art Berman attempted to soothe anxieties about the coming end of growth by redefining ‘collapse’. Relying on Joseph Tainter’s theory of the “loss of complexity”, Berman used the ancient city of Angkor Wat as his historical model.

According to Berman, when the empire fell, Angkor Wat didn’t instantly turn into a Mad Max wasteland. Instead, as the aqueducts silted up, the residents simply performed a “cost-benefit analysis”. Deciding the city was no longer worth the upkeep, they slowly packed up and trickled down the Mekong River to live in smaller, simpler communities.

Berman extrapolates this to the modern global crisis: Don’t worry, he implies, we aren’t facing a sudden cliff where billions die; we are just facing a slow, manageable downsizing where we voluntarily shed complexity.

This analogy is not just flawed; biophysically, it is insane. It suggests that 9 billion people are simply going to “leave” the industrial system—but where exactly are they going to go? Will their cost-benefit analysis conclude that they should simply stop eating?

Here is why the Angkor Wat analogy fails the test of modern thermodynamics.

1. The Closed System Problem (There is No ‘Outside’)

In the 12th century, the residents of Angkor Wat had a luxury that modern humanity does not possess: an ‘Outside’.

When the local urban carrying capacity failed, the population could physically walk a few dozen miles into a sparsely populated, fertile river delta and revert to subsistence foraging and agriculture. The surrounding ecosystem had an abundance of natural Exergy (solar energy, fertile soil, wild game) waiting to be tapped.

Today, the entire planet is Angkor Wat.

We operate in a hyper-optimised, closed global system. Every arable inch of topsoil is accounted for. If the global logistical grid (which delivers the diesel, the seeds, and the water) breaks down, the populations of megacities like Tokyo, Cairo, or London cannot simply “walk down the river” to farm. There is no empty, fertile frontier waiting to absorb 9 billion subsistence farmers.

2. The Haber-Bosch Cliff

Berman forgets that the modern human population is not a product of natural carrying capacity; it is an artifact of fossil fuels.

Roughly half the nitrogen in the bodies of the global population was synthesised in a factory using the Haber-Bosch process, which turns natural gas into ammonia fertiliser. We are literally eating natural gas.

When Angkor Wat’s aqueducts failed, the population lost a convenience. When the global fossil-fuel supply chain fails, the population loses its fundamental biological building block.

You cannot apply a “cost-benefit analysis” to starvation. If the Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) drops below the threshold required to manufacture and transport synthetic fertiliser, the Earth’s carrying capacity does not slowly “downsize” over a century. It drops off a cliff.

3. The Violence of Inelastic Demand

Berman assumes humans will rationally “shed complexity” like a household trimming its budget. This ignores the inelasticity of biological demand.

When a household is stressed, it cancels its Netflix subscription. When a biophysical system of 9 billion people is stressed by a lack of caloric input, it does not peacefully disperse; it turns kinetic. The loss of complexity is not a quiet migration; it is a violent scramble for the remaining low-entropy gradients (food, water, fuel).

4. The Comforting Delusion

Berman’s use of the Angkor Wat analogy is a psychological defence mechanism. It is an attempt to look at the terrifying mathematical reality of the Resource Entropy Singularity and make it palatable.

He wants to believe that because collapse was slow in a pre-industrial, low-population agrarian society, it will be slow in a hyper-connected, artificially sustained, high-population industrial society.

But physics does not negotiate. When you pull the plug on an artificial life-support system, the patient doesn’t slowly reConclusionvert to a hunter-gatherer lifestyle. The patient crashes. Nine billion people cannot simply ‘walk away’ from the only machine keeping them alive.

I highly recommend reading this entire article. It is one hell of a delusion buster.

Art Berman knows this is a fallacy … he knows what the result of the end of cheap energy will be. He has chosen to not crush his readers with despair so instead, he lies.

Fast Eddy, on the other hand, does not peddle hopium…

---

The Dragon in the Coal Mine

Western commentators look at China and see a ‘Peer Competitor’. They see 5G networks, hypersonic missiles, and a fleet of EVs. They see a rival ideology threatening the Liberal Order.

I look at China and see a Thermodynamic Suicide Machine.

In a coal mine, the danger isn’t just running out of coal; it is the build-up of explosive gas (Methane). In the Chinese economy, the ‘Methane’ is Unpayable Entropy:

• Water Scarcity: The North China Plain is drying up. They are spending billions of joules to pump water uphill (South-North Water Transfer) just to keep the wheat growing.

• Soil Depletion: Their farmland is so degraded by chemical fertilisers (made from coal/gas) that it requires ever-increasing inputs just to maintain yields.

Demographics: The One Child Policy was the ultimate Imposed Abstraction (M_I). It attempted to mechanistically reduce the ‘Maintenance Cost’ (P_maint) of the population to accelerate industrialisation, ignoring the emergent biological and cultural reality. By the time the ‘Brain’ realised its error, the reproductive cycle of the ‘Biomass’ (M_M) was broken.

---

The Men Who Run the World authorized the murder of thousands of America and used this as a pretext for invading multiple countries. Recall how they faked WMD to justify invading Iraq. They did these things because they were necessary.

Surely they’d fake the sabotage of a pipeline and fake a war to convince the barnyard animals that we are not well past peak affordable energy. This is NECESSARY.