Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion

A study in global systemic collapse

“How much Evil do you have to do - to do Good” John Cusack, Utopia.

Collapse is what they fear - these Men Who Run the World - the architects of The Ultimate Extinction Plan.

This is why they are able to commit the heinous crimes against humanity that have resulted from injecting billions with a ‘vaccine’ that was invented many years prior to Covid - and thoroughly tested. It is working as expected.

Snowflakes the likes of Trudeau and Ardern did not suddenly morph into demons. They, along with all key world leaders were informed that peak cheap oil had finally arrived, and that collapse was imminent. This information was likely conveyed at Davos or Bilderberg, or perhaps a meeting without a name that involved extreme secrecy.

They were informed that ‘the decision was already made’ and that the issue was not up for discussion. The decision, as with all important decisions, was made by the Men Who Run the World. Politicians, including The New Messiah, Donald Trump, are window dressing, existing only to convince the barnyard animals that they ultimately hold power (Look at how easily the imbeciles were convinced to shoot a vaccine that they were told was invented and tested for long term side-effects, in less than a year. Do you really think the serious, powerful men of the world would allow their votes to be cancelled out a million times over by an army Swifty’s? Come the f789 on man!)

The decision they made was to exterminate 8 billion humans before the global economy collapsed thereby minimizing the suffering, minimizing the murder, rape, disease and cannibalism that would result if 8B were left in the dark without food if they did nothing.

There would be no opposing the decision. No factions within the military, the medical establishment or the pharmaceuticals industry would dare to refuse to carry out the plan. They would be aware that resistance is futile, but more importantly, that to not act would result in a far more horrifying outcome. Therefore they locked arms and moved forward with this terrifying, yet necessary, plan.

The barnyard animals are being marched to extinction believing that they have been saved by Trump’s magic vaccine, the author of their demise. They are completely oblivious to the dire energy situation even though the symptoms are smashing them in the face. As affordable energy depletes, that drives inflation. Central banks respond with epic amounts of stimulus as they fight to delay collapse.

The US is running up a cool trillion dollars in new debt every 100 days. This is madness, yet the barnyard animals are not troubled nor are they asking any questions. CNN tells them the economy is great, and the stock market is up, therefore it must be great.

There are 120,000,000 unfinished homes and a massive crisis in China. Meanwhile the barnyard animals are watching reruns of Dancing with Stars and American Idol, and being marched towards the graveyard.

How can you blame the barnyard animals for their sanguinity when The Ministry of Truth blames everything including energy inflation on the ‘Ukraine War’ and endlessly pounds them with tales of a green utopia that is just around the corner. A world that does not require filthy fossil fuels.

Of course that is also another lie, yet as with most big lies, it too is necessary. Without the lies the barnyard animals would lose their minds, fall into deep despair, and collapse would arrive prematurely.

BTW - my bucket list itinerary for today involves a visit to Okawachiyama—’a hidden village where Japan's imperial kilns were kept’. I recommend that everyone indulge in bucket listing activities. Time is short.

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V. Financial System-Supply-chain Cross Contagion

Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world W. B. Yeats The Second Coming

Something sets off an interrelated Eurozone crisis and banking crisis, a Spanish default say, which spreads panic and fear across other vulnerable Eurozone countries. This sets off a Minsky moment when overleveraged speculators in the banking and shadow banking system are forced to unwind positions into a one-sided (sellers only) market. The financial system contagion passes a tipping point where governments and central banks start to lose control and panic drives a (positive feedback) deepening and widening of the impact globally. In our tropic model of the globalised economy, the banking and monetary system keystonehub comes out of its equilibrium range, crosses a tipping point, and is driven away by positive feedbacks to some new state.

This directly links to another keystone-hub, production flows. Failing banks, fears of currency re-issue, fears of further default, collapse in Letters of Credit, and growing panic directly quickly shut down trade in the most affected countries.

As the week progresses factories close, communications are impaired, social stress and government panic increases. After a week almost all businesses are closed, there is a rising risk to critical infrastructure. Almost immediately internal trade and imports stops in the most affected countries, and there is impairment in a growing number of other countries. Trade is impaired globally via a credit crunch. This undermines exports from some of the most trade-central countries, with some of the most efficient JIT dependencies in the world. This cuts inputs into the production and trade into countries that were initially weakly affected by direct financial contagion.

Globally, the spread of trade contagion depends on complexity, centrality, and inventory times and once a critical threshold is passed spreads exponentially until the effect is damped by a large-scale global production collapse (implying another keystone-hub, economies of scale is driven out of equilibrium). Trade contagion and its implications feed back into financial system contagion, helping drive further disintegration.

The interacting and mutually destabilising effects of keystone-hubs coming out of equilibrium destroy the equilibrium of the globalised economy initiating a systemic collapse. Growing risk displacement in an increasingly vulnerable system is increasing the risk of system failure. Once the financial system contagion crosses a particular threshold the de-stabilisation of the globalised economy will be exceedingly difficult to arrest; this point may be in as little as ten days.

Once a major system collapse occurs, scale, hysteresis, entropy, loss of critical functions, recursion failure, and resource diversion is likely to ensure that the features associated with the previous dynamic state of the globalised economy can never be recovered.

V.1 The Crisis Breaks

We have outlined how the risk of a major shock arising from decades of credit expansion and imbalances is growing. We have also seen that we could expect a similar shock from the effects of peak oil on the economy. What unifies both is a catastrophic collapse arising from a loss of confidence in debt, and the solvency of banks and governments. What would be unique is the scale of the shock and its ability to strike at the heart of the world’s financial system.

But the implications are not just within the financial and monetary system. They would immediately affect the trade in real goods and services. As our economies have become more complex, de-localised and high speed, the implications on supply-chains could be rapid and devastating. There are three general points that are worth noting. Together they point to the likelihood that the crisis whenever it comes can be expected to be very large and society unprepared.

The first is temporal paralysis: As financial and monetary systems become more unstable, the risks associated with doing anything significant to change or alter the course increase (see also the discussion of lock-in in the final section). In addition, the diversity of national actors, public opinion, institutional players and perceptions works against a coherent consensus on action.

Therefore the temptation is to displace immediate risk by taking the minimal action to avert an imminent crisis. This increases systemic risk. Some steps in the evolving crisis might be handled, for example, a Greek default. However, each new iteration of the crisis is likely to be bigger and more complex than the one before, while the system is becomes ever less resilient.

A second issue is what might be called the reflexivity trap: Read More