Pathogens are Massing at the Gates
Human and Plant Diseases have been kept at bay for over a century
Doomsday preppers are focused on the futility of growing food, stacking gold, silver and ammo.
They are ignorant of the fact that before we harnessed fossil fuels and industrialized, humans were malnourished, disease-ridden beasts that suffered horribly as plagues ravaged the planet.
This grim situation mostly ended with the advent of antibiotics, sewage and water treatment, and massive improvements in nutrition and medical care. All made possible because of fossil fuels.
When civilization collapses all these advancements will vapourize. The pathogens that have been evolving trying to break through the wall of antibiotics that we constantly tweak are now super-charged. When the barrier crashes down because of severe depletion of oil and other energy sources these bugs on steroids are going to tear through whoever survives the collapse and make the Black Death look like a sniffle.
Similarly agricultural scientists have been in a constant battle with pathogens that attack plants, coming up with new pesticides to stay a step ahead and fending off famine.
Imagine what will happen to crops when pesticides are no longer available (there will also be no manure for composting because all the animals will be eaten).
What we are looking at is an Extinction Event. Nobody survives. In fact those who die first, are the lucky ones. There will be nothing but misery and suffering for the humans who linger.
Murder, rape, disease, cannibalism and spent fuel ponds - Fast Eddy’s Five Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
The emergence of antibiotics, sanitation measures, fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides , GMO hybrid seeds, industrialized mechanized farming are analogous to creation of a debt -based fractional reserve, fiat currency financialization of an economy, all resulting in a one time explosive growth in population.
All these things compound their effectiveness, like with the Cantillon effect: (those who get first dibs on the newly created fiat currency benefit the most, and those who get to use it later after inflation has taken hold lose out. )
In a similar way those who get to the fertile farm soil first get to exploit its nutrient value with bumper harvests, but those who plant or graze later lose out.
Farmland is now essentially a sterile planting surface which needs irrigation, fertilizer pesticides, fungicides, special genetically modified seeds and massive equipment to produce.
All goes well at first. Then there is hell to pay. Easy -to -procure natural resources, energy, and massive infusions of fiat debt work initially, like antibiotics, until resistance and depletion set in.
Then there is the great unwind.
I have to wonder what's going through the minds of all the MAGA Trumpsters right now and other national pride revival movements rising up in Europe.
Do they really believe that the genie can be put back in the bottle? That they can drill baby drill a few more years and print as much debt as is financially feasible and somehow ride this 'transitional period' out until the new age arrives with all its gifts and wonders?
I recognize that there's a lot of religious baggage attached to these movements and that may be the reason they are able to make leaps of faith with such ease where others simply don't see a way forward because we're looking at the current situation and there doesn't appear to be a logical way out of this predicament.
If I put my doomer hat on for a second I would expect to see an uptick of optimism based on this temporary win for American patriots and other similar movements reflected in the markets and projects that have been waiting for this geopolitical change of pace but after a grace period I would also expect reality to kick in and for the oil and general resource situation to become the main topic in daily discourse.
The distractions will fade away and everyone will be aware of the true causes behind the problems that start to manifest in their daily routine. They'll start to get angry and demand that the problems be fixed. Farmers will dump manure in front of government buildings. Riot police will be busier than ever and will eventually back down when they are overwhelmed. Then the people will take over and they will also be unable to fix the problem because there never was a fix, only lies and obfuscation i.e. climate crisis and energy transition.