There’s a fair chance that this might be the last article published here in 2024.
That being so, I’d like to start by thanking you for your interest and participation in our discussions during the year, and wishing you a very merry Festive Season and a happy and prosperous New Year.
Until quite recently, the idea that the global economy might reverse – my preferred term is inflect – from growth into contraction lived in the realm of radical and unwelcome theory.
But this has been the year in which theory has been borne out by experience.
Much as astronomers deduce the existence of invisible objects through their gravitational effects on other bodies, we can see the effects of economic inflexion in everything from social discontent and the “cost of living crisis” to deteriorating international relations and worsening financial fragility.
The causes of the ending and reversal of growth can be summed up in the single word depletion.
Fossil fuel energy has been depleted to a point where its material costs, measured here as the Energy Costs of Energy (ECoEs), are becoming unaffordable.
Non-energy natural resources, too, such as minerals, agricultural land and accessible water, have been depleted, as has the finite ability of the environment to absorb the effects of human economic activity.
This is the baseball bat-in-your-face example of privatizing profits (if any to be had at this stage of depletion) and socializing losses (costs.)
Think of this as a candle burning at both ends. One end of the candle is the man made folly of fiat currency and debt. The other end is the phsyical laws of nature governing EROEI with the extraction of hydrocarbons, soil nutrients, water and minerals.
They are burning towards each other. When they meet, they both go out simultaneously.
>> the body representing oil and gas producers [said] the industry was unlikely to invest in exploring for new gas without "government support to help manage risk".
Said differently, net returns for oil and gas drilling have turned negative. Very bad news for all involved.
In terms a barnyard animal should be able to understand.... there ain't no oil and gas left to discover.
The thing is .... I have alerted a few sheeple in NZ to this situation ... thinking that I was doing them a favour... but I am not going to tell them what to do ... they would find that offensive....
When the receive the link to the original article on this crisis... they do not respond. You'd think it would be a holy fuck moment ... and that they'd immediately list their homes for sale and book a flight to Aussie...
I suppose one issue is that property prices are down around 25% across NZ... Queenstown is flat though ... most of the sheeple I know bought years ago so could offer a below market price to sell quickly and still make big $$$$.
Not one has said he's selling and leaving.
They are like deer in the headlights - I have shown them the 18 wheeler bearing down on them ...the driver is blasting the horn.... but the sheeple continue to stand in the middle of the road... ignoring my warnings... ignoring the truck...
Is an IMF bailout even helpful in this instance? It would need to be in perpetuity allowing NZ to ship LNG and pay for the shipments... they don't even have a port to accept the shipments and there is no word that they are building one.
Related to this ... NZ has fast tracked a large number of property developments... where I lived they are trying to oppose being overrun by one of these mass builds... the entire community has joined ranks to fight -- but the mayor has informed them that they are not permitted to speak at any of the meetings... essentially the national government has issued an edict -- and that's final.
Friends in the community (who are ignoring my energy warnings) are baffled at these totalitarian tactics... when I suggest that the government is desperate for growth to fend off collapse so they are ramming through high value projects to spur GDP.... they go silent.. they don't agree... they don't disagree
Aussie is a 3 hour flight from QT.... these people I speak of are close to retirement age.... I feel slightly sorry for them... they will lose everything when this tips....
What about Oz though? That was a bit of a nightmare under Operation COVID too. I mean... at least they didn't have a donkey trying to cull them but not much better.
Surely Oz will suffer the same energy depletion and property issues after a while.
Yes of course... but it's like the Titanic... you can either end up in the water (stay in NZ...) or get on a lifeboat and squeeze out a bit more life...
Make no mistake though -- rescue boats are not coming for the life boats... everyone dies.... just a matter of when
Would they abandon it... but what message does that send to the rest of the world when they see a Whitey nation collapse because they've run out of energy... does that cause the panic that they have so carefully managed with https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-three-pillars-of-bullshit
Maybe Donkey Face can think of a way to handle this imminent catastrophe
I dropped a short message to one of my favourite sheeple in that country this morning... a link to the request for a tax payer funded hail mary ... no reply ... so I DMed... I wouldn't be keen on buying NZ property ...thinking maybe that might prompt him to realize the pot is close to boiling... no response.... a 3 hour flight gets you onto a life boat....
B-B-B-But what about all those sneaky American trillionaire doomers building their luxury boltholes in NZ so they can ride out the collapse in fine style? Poor little richie-riches are going to freeze in the dark.
(PROTIP): Try Mars. Elon assures us it's the "in place" to be.
I was online with a friend who is in the building trade... been a month and he has no work... December is usually extremely busy... no prospects in the new year... he's thinking of heading to Asia for a year to ride this out...
The thing is ... this is as good as it gets... in a year it will be far worse... quite possibly the country will have collapsed...
If the desperate measures that including rapid fire reductions in interest rates and Fast Tracking building projects don't juice the economy --- and I cannot see how they will given any juicing will just put additional demand on their limited energy resources... resulting in extreme inflation -- quick possibly hyperinflation.
Surely institutional investors can see the writing on the wall here... you'd think they'd be pulling out of the stock and bond market...
You'd have to be a total moron to buy a NZ govt bond ... you will not get paid back...
You'd think they'd need to offer a massive return to compensate for the enormous risk when trying to issue bonds...
Perhaps we've got some behind the scenes action in the form of a bailout happening and keeping their bond prices under control... an implicit guarantee from the Fed or some big global entity....
It will be in everyone's interest to help maintain the pretense or normality in that country... if there is a massive attack on the NZD by predators... and the bond market goes Venezuela... that sends a very dangerous signal to the already nervous barnyard animals...
Whitey countries need to be supported... it's ok if non-Whitey countries implode e.g. Cuba... cuz the barnyard animals expect the coloured people to fuck up...
If NZ goes they start to wonder if they are next... and they stop consuming....
Bond sale shortfall, ballooning deficit early warning signs for Hong Kong
The weak response to a government bond sale and deficit woes should spur leaders into urgent, resolute action
News that there was insufficient demand from the public for government bonds in a recent sales exercise will have surprised many people. After all, government borrowings are just about the safest investment in an advanced economy like Hong Kong, and the amount being sought was modest.
This came soon after the admission by Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po that the deficit this financial year was likely to exceed HK$100 billion (US$12.8 billion), double his estimate in the budget. That meant raised eyebrows were definitely in order – Hong Kong’s reputation for fiscal prudence is clearly at risk.
The infrastructure bond sale was just HK$20 billion, but the public signed up for only HK$17.85 billion. The underwriters had to make up the balance. There might be pressure on the government to offer a higher interest rate on future bond sales.
Once upon a time I lived in Queenstown NZ.... one of my neighbours was a project manager for one of the contractors that built luxury homes.. he worked on a couple of homes that had bunkers... he mentioned one had 3 huge rooms underground two of which were he understood to be used to store food.
I imagine when NZ blows to pieces this neighbour will put a digger on a trailer and head for that home... the neighbour next to him is a hunting guide... I went deer hunting with him a few times... I saw him take down a deer from roughly 700 metres... I suspect he'll join and provide security as the other guy digs up the bunker
I was in Vancouver in the 1970s and clearly remember the storm of ridicule that followed the suggestion the Albertans were desperate enough to try that...
Next Great Leap Forward: "North Pole - here we come!"
There's all kinds of mystery surrounding the Tesla tower and the ability to send energy wirelessly across the country similar to radio waves and utilizing the phenomena of resonance but I'm pretty sure that independent scientists today would be able to knock something up and exhibit it for the world to see if that story were true.
And Trump's uncle swiped the Tesla notebooks and all that free energy treasure which would nicely set up a tech and energy revolution under a Technocratic Trump regime right?
Which is what we see being set up in front of our eyes with all the Silicon Valley tech billionaires lined up to spring the surprise. They may need an excuse to cover up the fact that they've been sitting on this tech for decades while squeezing the last drop of fossil fuel out of the ground.
The thing is I don't think the general public is going to fall for the alien intervention story the same way they did for Operation COVID. It's quite the leap and would have to be expertly written by the Hollywood producers writing the script for Trump and co.
I was an avid follower of UFO community stories maybe twenty years ago but never did I think the 'whistleblowers' were telling the truth. Just elaborate storytelling for entertainment purposes.
And anyway, they said the same thing about nuclear energy sixty years ago and we're still stalling on all that sci-fi future that we were promised.
What we do see is the roll out of militarized control of all aspects of life with combat robots, drones, satellite surveillance systems, digital ID and enough bread and circuses to keep the sheeple asleep until the job is done.
AT THE END OF TECHNOLOGICAL HUBRIS
There’s a fair chance that this might be the last article published here in 2024.
That being so, I’d like to start by thanking you for your interest and participation in our discussions during the year, and wishing you a very merry Festive Season and a happy and prosperous New Year.
Until quite recently, the idea that the global economy might reverse – my preferred term is inflect – from growth into contraction lived in the realm of radical and unwelcome theory.
But this has been the year in which theory has been borne out by experience.
Much as astronomers deduce the existence of invisible objects through their gravitational effects on other bodies, we can see the effects of economic inflexion in everything from social discontent and the “cost of living crisis” to deteriorating international relations and worsening financial fragility.
The causes of the ending and reversal of growth can be summed up in the single word depletion.
Fossil fuel energy has been depleted to a point where its material costs, measured here as the Energy Costs of Energy (ECoEs), are becoming unaffordable.
Non-energy natural resources, too, such as minerals, agricultural land and accessible water, have been depleted, as has the finite ability of the environment to absorb the effects of human economic activity.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/12/12/295-beans-on-tech/
Happy Christmas and new year, 2025 might be the year the normies finally realise the party is coming to an end. Enjoy the outback
This is the baseball bat-in-your-face example of privatizing profits (if any to be had at this stage of depletion) and socializing losses (costs.)
Think of this as a candle burning at both ends. One end of the candle is the man made folly of fiat currency and debt. The other end is the phsyical laws of nature governing EROEI with the extraction of hydrocarbons, soil nutrients, water and minerals.
They are burning towards each other. When they meet, they both go out simultaneously.
Then what?
>> the body representing oil and gas producers [said] the industry was unlikely to invest in exploring for new gas without "government support to help manage risk".
Said differently, net returns for oil and gas drilling have turned negative. Very bad news for all involved.
In terms a barnyard animal should be able to understand.... there ain't no oil and gas left to discover.
The thing is .... I have alerted a few sheeple in NZ to this situation ... thinking that I was doing them a favour... but I am not going to tell them what to do ... they would find that offensive....
When the receive the link to the original article on this crisis... they do not respond. You'd think it would be a holy fuck moment ... and that they'd immediately list their homes for sale and book a flight to Aussie...
I suppose one issue is that property prices are down around 25% across NZ... Queenstown is flat though ... most of the sheeple I know bought years ago so could offer a below market price to sell quickly and still make big $$$$.
Not one has said he's selling and leaving.
They are like deer in the headlights - I have shown them the 18 wheeler bearing down on them ...the driver is blasting the horn.... but the sheeple continue to stand in the middle of the road... ignoring my warnings... ignoring the truck...
Is an IMF bailout even helpful in this instance? It would need to be in perpetuity allowing NZ to ship LNG and pay for the shipments... they don't even have a port to accept the shipments and there is no word that they are building one.
Related to this ... NZ has fast tracked a large number of property developments... where I lived they are trying to oppose being overrun by one of these mass builds... the entire community has joined ranks to fight -- but the mayor has informed them that they are not permitted to speak at any of the meetings... essentially the national government has issued an edict -- and that's final.
Friends in the community (who are ignoring my energy warnings) are baffled at these totalitarian tactics... when I suggest that the government is desperate for growth to fend off collapse so they are ramming through high value projects to spur GDP.... they go silent.. they don't agree... they don't disagree
Aussie is a 3 hour flight from QT.... these people I speak of are close to retirement age.... I feel slightly sorry for them... they will lose everything when this tips....
What about Oz though? That was a bit of a nightmare under Operation COVID too. I mean... at least they didn't have a donkey trying to cull them but not much better.
Surely Oz will suffer the same energy depletion and property issues after a while.
Yes of course... but it's like the Titanic... you can either end up in the water (stay in NZ...) or get on a lifeboat and squeeze out a bit more life...
Make no mistake though -- rescue boats are not coming for the life boats... everyone dies.... just a matter of when
I wonder what they will do about NZ... it's not a key pillar in the supply chain https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/financial-system-supply-chain-cross I can't think of any product that it exports that is crucial to BAU...
Would they abandon it... but what message does that send to the rest of the world when they see a Whitey nation collapse because they've run out of energy... does that cause the panic that they have so carefully managed with https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-three-pillars-of-bullshit
Maybe Donkey Face can think of a way to handle this imminent catastrophe
I dropped a short message to one of my favourite sheeple in that country this morning... a link to the request for a tax payer funded hail mary ... no reply ... so I DMed... I wouldn't be keen on buying NZ property ...thinking maybe that might prompt him to realize the pot is close to boiling... no response.... a 3 hour flight gets you onto a life boat....
B-B-B-But what about all those sneaky American trillionaire doomers building their luxury boltholes in NZ so they can ride out the collapse in fine style? Poor little richie-riches are going to freeze in the dark.
(PROTIP): Try Mars. Elon assures us it's the "in place" to be.
When TSHTF all those contractors who built the bunkers will be along shortly to kill the owners and take possession themselves.
TeeHee! Surprise party.
I was online with a friend who is in the building trade... been a month and he has no work... December is usually extremely busy... no prospects in the new year... he's thinking of heading to Asia for a year to ride this out...
The thing is ... this is as good as it gets... in a year it will be far worse... quite possibly the country will have collapsed...
If the desperate measures that including rapid fire reductions in interest rates and Fast Tracking building projects don't juice the economy --- and I cannot see how they will given any juicing will just put additional demand on their limited energy resources... resulting in extreme inflation -- quick possibly hyperinflation.
Surely institutional investors can see the writing on the wall here... you'd think they'd be pulling out of the stock and bond market...
You'd have to be a total moron to buy a NZ govt bond ... you will not get paid back...
You'd think they'd need to offer a massive return to compensate for the enormous risk when trying to issue bonds...
Perhaps we've got some behind the scenes action in the form of a bailout happening and keeping their bond prices under control... an implicit guarantee from the Fed or some big global entity....
It will be in everyone's interest to help maintain the pretense or normality in that country... if there is a massive attack on the NZD by predators... and the bond market goes Venezuela... that sends a very dangerous signal to the already nervous barnyard animals...
Whitey countries need to be supported... it's ok if non-Whitey countries implode e.g. Cuba... cuz the barnyard animals expect the coloured people to fuck up...
If NZ goes they start to wonder if they are next... and they stop consuming....
This used to be unthinkable....
Bond sale shortfall, ballooning deficit early warning signs for Hong Kong
The weak response to a government bond sale and deficit woes should spur leaders into urgent, resolute action
News that there was insufficient demand from the public for government bonds in a recent sales exercise will have surprised many people. After all, government borrowings are just about the safest investment in an advanced economy like Hong Kong, and the amount being sought was modest.
This came soon after the admission by Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po that the deficit this financial year was likely to exceed HK$100 billion (US$12.8 billion), double his estimate in the budget. That meant raised eyebrows were definitely in order – Hong Kong’s reputation for fiscal prudence is clearly at risk.
The infrastructure bond sale was just HK$20 billion, but the public signed up for only HK$17.85 billion. The underwriters had to make up the balance. There might be pressure on the government to offer a higher interest rate on future bond sales.
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3290529/bond-sale-shortfall-ballooning-deficit-early-warning-signs-hong-kong
Dominos are all over the place... and I don't mean shitty pizza
Once upon a time I lived in Queenstown NZ.... one of my neighbours was a project manager for one of the contractors that built luxury homes.. he worked on a couple of homes that had bunkers... he mentioned one had 3 huge rooms underground two of which were he understood to be used to store food.
I imagine when NZ blows to pieces this neighbour will put a digger on a trailer and head for that home... the neighbour next to him is a hunting guide... I went deer hunting with him a few times... I saw him take down a deer from roughly 700 metres... I suspect he'll join and provide security as the other guy digs up the bunker
Very scary stuff!
But what about Tesla? The real guy. Didn’t he make something that they took from him that made energy out of the air?
If that was a true story, they could bring that out now and say they just invented it.
Nah... we prefer to steam oil out of sand
I was in Vancouver in the 1970s and clearly remember the storm of ridicule that followed the suggestion the Albertans were desperate enough to try that...
Next Great Leap Forward: "North Pole - here we come!"
There's all kinds of mystery surrounding the Tesla tower and the ability to send energy wirelessly across the country similar to radio waves and utilizing the phenomena of resonance but I'm pretty sure that independent scientists today would be able to knock something up and exhibit it for the world to see if that story were true.
And Trump's uncle swiped the Tesla notebooks and all that free energy treasure which would nicely set up a tech and energy revolution under a Technocratic Trump regime right?
Which is what we see being set up in front of our eyes with all the Silicon Valley tech billionaires lined up to spring the surprise. They may need an excuse to cover up the fact that they've been sitting on this tech for decades while squeezing the last drop of fossil fuel out of the ground.
The thing is I don't think the general public is going to fall for the alien intervention story the same way they did for Operation COVID. It's quite the leap and would have to be expertly written by the Hollywood producers writing the script for Trump and co.
I was an avid follower of UFO community stories maybe twenty years ago but never did I think the 'whistleblowers' were telling the truth. Just elaborate storytelling for entertainment purposes.
And anyway, they said the same thing about nuclear energy sixty years ago and we're still stalling on all that sci-fi future that we were promised.
What we do see is the roll out of militarized control of all aspects of life with combat robots, drones, satellite surveillance systems, digital ID and enough bread and circuses to keep the sheeple asleep until the job is done.